The Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics: A Nexus of Applied Mathematics, Computational Science, and Public Health

Since its launch in 2022, the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA) at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has sought to make transformative advancements in modeling, forecasting, and outbreak analytics. CFA is working to increase the responsive capacities of both the CDC and the nation during emerging public health threats by expanding partnerships with academia, the private sector, state and local public health departments, other public health organizations, and professional societies. Mathematical modeling is at the heart of CFA’s mission and is essential to its three primary functions: predict, inform, and innovate.

As we reflect on the lessons and fundamental takeaways of COVID-19, it is evident that the innovative, nimble, and quick response of the applied mathematics and computational science community contributed significantly to society’s understanding of the pandemic; provided decision-makers with crucial, real-time public health data; and ultimately saved lives. Applied mathematicians and computational scientists coordinated closely with state health departments to compile and analyze local health data; assist with locating outbreaks; and assess shortages in access to care, diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. The community also collaborated with federal agencies to aid in the rapid development of simulations that leverage high-performance computing to forecast disease spread and explore the uncertainty of future transmission dynamics.

I believe that SIAM and its members can help us maintain this momentum and generate new tools that will comprise critical components of future disease and outbreak response infrastructure. CFA has already been instrumental in the development of scenario analyses to predict the caseload from COVID-19’s Omicron variant, ultimately providing an early warning that allowed local, state, and federal leaders to prepare for the eventual surge in cases. In response to the 2022 mpox outbreak in the U.S., CFA developed a first-of-its-kind “technical reports” product that quickly made scientific information about the situation available to the public. These reports offered vital insights into the mpox outbreak, including estimates of key epidemiologic quantities and assessments of the potential future outbreak trajectory. In addition, CFA is continuing to team up with other CDC programs to produce a virtual analyst platform that will serve as a common suite of software, tools, and file and code-sharing capabilities for modeling collaborations. This platform is currently in the pilot phase, but the final version will allow modelers to work with public health data in real time and create a trusted, connected pathway for data analysis that is accessible to local, state, and federal public health decision-makers.

In the research and development space, CFA has contracted with several universities on efforts to improve forecasting and outbreak analytics for emergency decision-making. It also launched a funding opportunity that aims to establish a network of innovators who will design, prototype, test, refine, evaluate, and implement new and enhanced capabilities for disease modeling and analytics to ultimately improve decision support during infectious disease outbreaks. Though this funding opportunity recently closed, I encourage SIAM members to stay tuned for subsequent chances to get involved.

As CFA grows its extramural community engagement, we continue to make internal hires and look to the SIAM community for data scientists and information technology specialists who can support its mission. We are especially interested in individuals who are developing and deploying novel modeling methods and tools, high-quality open-source software, and other capabilities that support public health decision-makers. The next phase of public health advances will necessitate robust participation from applied mathematicians and computational scientists. I therefore urge SIAM members to explore collaborations with the public health and infectious disease research community, pursue funding opportunities through CFA and CDC programs, and even consider a career at CFA to help develop next-generation models, transformative forecasting tools, and outbreak analytics. Applied mathematics and computational science—as well as mathematical and computational research and education—are already critical components of an effective public health infrastructure and will only increase in their importance. I look forward to working with the SIAM community to build upon the successes of CFA and ensure its longevity.